Welcome to the Slattery Asset Advisory report for the 1st Quarter of 2015-16 Financial Year. The Quarterly Report is read and valued by many of Slattery's clients to keep ahead of the market for key industry trends, insights and movements in asset values.
As the popularity of our hybrid traditional and online simulcast auction platform continues to grow, barriers for our buyers to participate in all our auctions around the country reduce. This has had the effect of more of our buyers purchasing from interstate and increasing competitive tension at our auctions increasing overall returns for our clients.
The 1st quarter of the year has kicked off strongly for the team at Slattery's with a lot of activity out of our new Perth office led by industry veteran and Perth local Brian Mobbs. We are really pleased with the warm welcome we have received from the Western Australian market overall and are excited about the year to come.
As always we have included some the key trends in the report to give our valued clients a good idea of how we are tracking against the market.
Slattery Asset Advisory has seen an increase in enquiries from both corporates and SME's in Western Australia with underutilised fleets of equipment. Generally, enquiries have been by those looking to determine the equity in their fleet in order to obtain additional funding or those looking for remarketing strategies to sell down their fleet and increase their cash position.
Unsurprisingly, most enquiries have come from the mining services sector and in particular fleet hire companies. Mobile crane operators have also felt the challenges from the downturn in workflow. We expect to see similar briefs in WA continue over the coming quarter due to the uncertainty in the mining and mining services sectors.
We noted in the previous quarter that there has been a substantial drop in values for ultra-class mining equipment (that is very large off-highway rock trucks, dozers, scrapers, shovels and excavators that are used predominantly in mining). The drop in values is a normalization from the highs achieved during the mining boom with a new base of values established across the board for all equipment.
Commentary from the previous quarter continues to be relevant in the first quarter of this financial year for ultra-class mining equipment.
There is a global glut of Rock Trucks used for mining purposes, which has led to drops in value in all markets around the world. Most of the Rock Truck fleets belong to contractors who were previously servicing the mining sector. As commodity prices have dropped the work previously being serviced by these fleets has become commercially unviable and work stopped. This has led to the underutilization of Rock Truck fleets.
D10 and D11 sized dozers are the bright spot in the ultra-class mining sector with values holding up and sales still being made. Demand has been strongest for these assets out of Queensland.
By adopting a much more pro-active sales strategy and a longer sales period, Slattery Auctions has managed to achieve good sales, reflecting the shift in negotiating power in favour of the buyer in sales campaigns. We have witnessed strong demand from buyers when they have secured a contract and require an asset to service that contract.
As the clear market leader in the manufacturing and sales of plant and equipment, Caterpillar's sales figures are a useful indicator as to the health of the new equipment market.
Globally Caterpillar sales and revenues dropped 19% from last year with a forecast additional 5% drop in 2016. In the Asia Pacific, sales declined 25% primarily due to lower end-user demand for mining equipment, products used in oil and gas applications and construction equipment. The biggest impact was felt by a drop in demand from China and Japan. The stronger US dollar has also made Caterpillar purchases in AUD and JPY more expensive.
Sales of equipment into resource industries dropped 29% and sales into the construction sector dropped 27% in the Asia Pacific, as compared to the same time in 2014. These drops are off the back of a drop of 47% and 12% respectively last year from the 2013 year.
Sales also decreased 31% in Latin America, primarily due to widespread economic weakness across the region, which has had a negative impact on demand for construction equipment and spending. The most significant decrease was in Brazil. This suggests that there is unlikely to be any strong demand for ultra-class mining equipment from Australia in the mining regions of Latin America.
Generally sales results of mid-size plant and equipment over the past quarter have been patchy with some equipment types performing well and others continuing their depressed sales results from the previous quarter. Many equipment dealers have been conservative and largely risk averse in their purchasing habits.
Sales in Western Australia have been well attended by buyers from the East Coast looking for bargains. There is a clear price differentiation across all asset classes for assets sold on the West Coast and the East Coast. In one case, a regular buyer who operates a fleet of machinery purchased a 30 tonne excavator in Perth, paid $14,000 to ship the asset to Port Kembla and believes he still got it cheaper than if he had purchased on the East Coast.
Newer mid-size equipment with low hours have been selling well whereas older equipment that could present maintenance concerns will move where there is a price point that reflects a buyer's concerns. As the dollar has dropped, local machinery dealers have been purchasing equipment and starting to send equipment offshore. If the Australia dollar continues to drop we expect to see this trend continue.
Articulated Dump Trucks are a particular asset class that has struggled over the last quarter. Values for articulated dump trucks are very soft nationally due to an oversupply and lack of demand. There is an abundance of machines on the market for sale and generally just parked up in industrial areas around the country.
Caterpillar remains the market leader in this asset class, however has been challenged by Volvo, which has a significant presence in the European market. In response, Caterpillar has dropped its prices for new articulated dump trucks, which has also contributed to lower prices for used assets.
A recent sale of two 2007 Caterpillar 740 6WD Dump Trucks only received a high bid of $60,000 each, which was about 25% below what would have been expected the previous quarter. Both assets were referred and Slattery staff negotiated a higher final sale price. This disappointing result reflects the low appetite for these assets resulting from a lack of demand and oversupply.
Despite the recent depressed prices, we expect the market for articulated dump trucks to rebound in NSW as some large government infrastructure projects come online.
Excavators with tonnage between 5 tonnes and 20 tonnes are by far the most popular with tradesman and smaller civil operators. Larger excavators have been challenging to sell, however Slattery Auctions has achieved some strong results.
There has been a noticeable trend towards some of the Korean made excavators as they have become more reliable whilst maintaining their cheaper price point, in particular Hyundai. In contrast, Komatsu excavators have been dropping in value.
In a recent NSW auction Slattery Auctions sold a 2010 Hyundai 210 LC-9 Robex Excavator for approximately 80% of the retail value. This excavator was put immediately to work on an infrastructure project in the Sydney metro area.
Wheel loaders are still in demand in the market. Another recent sales highlight in our NSW auctions was for a Caterpillar 966G 4WD Wheel Loader with high hours that had spent its working life on a sand quarry and had the expected surface rust from being close to the ocean. The reputable brand, the potential to increase value with some work to the machine and reasonable market demand for wheel loaders meant dealers were prepared to take the risk to add the equipment to their inventory. Similarly, our monthly Queensland truck and machinery auction offered a 2009 CASE 512E Wheel Loader and achieved a sales result of 86% of the retail value.
Most medium sized plant and equipment sold out of our NSW premises are finding new homes on building and infrastructure contracts in the Sydney metropolitan area.
Mini construction equipment is always highly popular and has been dominated in recent years by Kubota, with Kobelco second in the market. The popularity of the mini construction market is largely due to tradesman able to operate a truck and trailer combination with a mini excavator and/or skid steer loader. This relatively cheap combination has a wide variety of applications including preparing house pads.
|Assets||Hours||Price Achieved||% of Retail||State|
|Mining and earthmoving equipment|
|CATERPILLAR 9666G 4WD WHEEL LOADER||11,386 hours||$64,000||83%||NSW|
|2010 HYUNDAI 210 LC-9 ROBEX EXCAVATOR||3,366 hours||$64,000||80%||NSW|
|1994 YANMAR V1050 KNUCKLE BOOM EXCAVATOR||4,693 hours||$15,000||81%||NSW|
|FLIP SCREEN AUSTRALIA E50 EXCAVATOR SCREEN||$13,000||96%||NSW|
|2009 CASE 521E WHEEL LOADER||3,042 hours||$60,000||86%||QLD|
|2014 KOBELCO SK260 EXCAVATOR||31 hours||$190,000||79%||QLD|
|2012 HYUNDAI ROBEX 210LC-9||1,228 hours||$92,000||80%||VIC|
Volumes of trucks going through Slattery Auctions Queensland auctions have reduced from the record highs of the first two quarters of 2015. With over 400 prime movers sold through auction in 2015 so far, we believe the supply has begun to outstrip demand and recent prices have been subdued. Our Brisbane premises recently offered a 2012 Kenworth T909 and 2014 Kenworth T409 that both sold 15% down on the same time last year.
The volume of trucking assets coming through our Perth premises has continued from both repossessions by financial institutions and many operators looking to offload surplus capacity. Slattery Auctions has targeted buyers nationally and found the strongest buyers for WA based assets are coming from the East Coast where values are higher and transporting assets back.
NSW and Victoria are finding there has been a resurgence in demand at their monthly auctions over the last 3 months for lesser rated trucks in the heavy-duty sector. These are the 70 – 90 tonne GCM, B Double rated Prime Movers, which are used in linehaul up and down the coast.
Our dealer network has also reported an increase in turnover through their retail networks, which have resulted in our dealer buyers purchasing more aggressively. A recent sale of a 2012 Kenworth K200 Big Cab with 676,000kms for $180,000 evidenced the fact there are strong buyers around.
There are a number of large infrastructure projects currently ongoing at the moment on the NSW mid-north coast. This has helped to underpin prices for quality heavy tippers by end users. Our most recent quarter saw a 2012 Freightliner C5T 112 Century Class 6x4 Tipper offered for auction, which realised $117,000 representing a strong return for our vendor.
In addition to these projects on the mid-north coast, there are a large number of significant projects due to commence in the Sydney metropolitan area in the near future. These projects should see demand for tippers across NSW, Qld and Victoria increase.
Where the prime mover has low kilometers, a thorough service history and rebuild documentation, it has bought outstanding results as buyers are confident in their purchase.
In contrast where the prime mover has been a slightly older and without a service history, buyers have been risk averse and tended away from competitive bidding, particularly assets over 9 years old.
In our previous quarterly report we noted that demand had dropped away significantly for more heavy duty spec'd trucks, that is, trucks with greater than 110 tonne GCM. This trend has continued into the this quarter of the year as more heavy duty trucks are put on the market without any increase in available work for these assets to service.
Sales of 4x2 (2 wheel drive) Japanese manufactured rigid trucks have been very strong in all of Slattery's auctions around Australia, in particular tilts, trays and tippers. Our Melbourne auction had a recent highlight of a 2013 UD Condor Tilt Truck with 41,300kms, which sold for $136,000 representing approximately 105% of the retail value. In NSW, a recent sale of a 2004 Hino FG Tipper sold for approximately $45,000 representing a good result from the previous quarter.
The popularity of the 4x2 market however, contrasts strongly with the medium rigid 4x4 all wheel drives, which are currently oversupplied. The dual cab Fuso and Isuzu's in particular are proving very tough.
A recent example of the challenges facing this market was the sale in June of a 2014 Hino GT with only 15,000 kms and equipped with a Palfinger crane, which sold for $90,000. Despite the $150,000 initial set up costs, similar trucks have been selling for in the vicinity of $55,000 at various auction houses.
The lower prices in the 4x4 market however are attractive to end users who have opted for the lower purchase price despite the higher running and maintenance costs of a 4x4.
The market for elevated work platforms (EWPs) has proven to be a little unpredictable over the previous quarter in NSW. This is in contrast to earlier in the year where we have repeatedly seen some very strong results. NSW achieved a good result with a 2004 Isuzu FVZ 1400 6x4 with a 23m EWP that achieved $69,000 at our August auction. We have a large number of EWPs coming onto the market over the next quarter so we will be well placed to comment on whether this was just an anomaly or a sign of something broader in the market.
Light trucks have continued to be popular in all metro locations due to their multiple applications across a range of industries. We expect to see demand (and subsequently) prices for pantechs that can be used with a car licence to increase in the lead up to Christmas.
Rental companies will reduce the number of assets they sell prior to the Christmas period due to their high fleet utilisation rates. These assets will come onto the market in the new year and may reduce values over that period.
There is a very real fear in the market that there is a current oversupply of heavy haulage assets as some large operators in this industry have hit hard times and have seen their assets go up for auction. This is highlighted by a 2011 MTE 2 row of 8 Dolly that sold for $40,000 in September 2015. This exact asset sold for $75,000 in March 2015, which is a huge decrease in 6 months.
A less alarming result was a recent sale for a high end, high quality, late model low loader, which fared a little better. The 2013 Drake 4 row of 4 Widener Low Loader sold for $170,000 during the quarter, which is a good result in the current conditions. However, it must be noted that this is still a heavily discounted price to what this asset would have sold for 18 months previously during the mining boom.
On the positive side, our Victorian premises have reported good signs for drop decks and floats in recent sales. Whether these good results can continue in spite of the large volume of drop decks and floats hitting the market nationally (mainly through insolvency appointments) remains to be seen.
Our Victorian office has also reported a drop in demand for tautliners citing excessive volumes through the Melbourne based auction houses in recent times as the cause.
In NSW, there has been strong end user interest in good quality, late model tipping trailers. In September a sale of a 2012 Chris's Body Builders Super Dog Tipping Trailer sold at auction for $50,000, close to full retail value.
As reported in our last Quarterly Report, the Truck Industry Council expects the average truck age to exceed 14 years in the next 2 years. To show the age of trucks in Australia versus some global averages we have listed some interesting comparisons below:
|Assets||Hours/Kms||Price Achieved||% of Retail||State|
|2014 HINO 300/617 TIPPER - SEVERELY DAMAGED||38,014 km||$32,000||100%||NSW|
|2003 KENWORTH T904 B/D PRIME MOVER - NON GOER||No Reading Available due to damage||$55,000||80%||NSW|
|2006 HINO DUTRO SERVICE BODY||197,712 km||$14,000||78%||NSW|
|2004 MITSUBISHI FK600 FIGHTER TIPPER||305,909 km||$22,000||77%||NSW|
|2004 ISUZU FVZ 1400 AUTO 6X4 WITH 23M GMJ EWP||160,104 km||$69,000||77%||NSW|
|2012 FREIGHTLINER C5T112 CENTURY CLASS 6X4 TIPPER||150,804 km||$115,000||85%||NSW|
|2004 HINO FG TIPPER||253,795 km||$45,000||82%||NSW|
|2013 DRAKE 4 ROW OF 4 WIDENER LOW LOADER||$170,000||71%||NSW|
|2009 BRIMARCO TRAILER||$107,500||77%||QLD|
|2011 MTE 5X8 FLOAT||$165,000||87%||QLD|
|2012 MACK TRIDENT||262,633 km||$121,000||76%||QLD|
|2010 MITSUBISHI CANTER||108,060 km||$24,500||82%||QLD|
|2012 DAF FL55.280 TRAY||67,905 km||$68,000||85%||VIC|
|2013 HERCULES TIPPING TRAILER||215,993 km||$63,000||78%||VIC|
|2011 HERCULES TIPPING TRAILER||428,725 km||$65,000||87%||VIC|
|2013 UD CONDOR TILT||41,330 km||$136,000||105%||VIC|
|2009 VOLVO FM9 TRAY||393,407 km||$87,000||90%||VIC|
|2012 KENWORTH K200 BIG CAB||676,918 km||$180,000||90%||VIC|
|2009 KENWORTH T608 DAY CAB||767,546 km||$82,000||86%||VIC|
|2014 ATM DROP DECK WIDENER||$98,000||105%||VIC|
|2010 KENWORTH K108 6X4 PRIME MOVER||251,937 km||$124,700||86%||WA|
The third quarter of 2015 in the used vehicle sector has seen stronger demand and higher results driven by a shortage of good retail stock. Previous quarters have seen buyers being very particular about what they buy and avoiding anything without full service histories. We have also had an increase in end users attending and buying at auction due to our active buyer development program, which pushes sales prices higher.
Complementing our local buyers, we have seen a significant increase in our online bidding activity with buyers from interstate participating online. The cost of transporting the vehicle between sites on the east coast is very reasonable at approximately $500 per vehicle. The additional expense of change in registration is also taken into consideration. This has been particularly noticeable at our NSW auctions and is expanded on below.
Historically results for used vehicle sales are cyclical with better prices achieved in the warmer months leading into Christmas, followed by a softening of prices post-Christmas. We therefore expect results to strengthen over the next 6 weeks.
The VW diesel emissions scandal has been widely publicized over the past quarter. It is unclear what impact it might have on the Australian market, but it does have the potential to adversely affect the future values of these vehicles. It is an area of interest that we will continue to monitor and report back on should we observe any impact.
Commercial vehicles have been a standout performer throughout this quarter. Last quarter we drew your attention to watch the impact a large number of ex-rental commercial vehicles, which were on the market due to the closure of a number of large rental companies. In particular Sargents, which had a large number of dual cab utilities. The results have been quite amazing. Our predictions were that the retained value of these vehicles would be adversely effected due to the large volumes and an expectation that it would outstrip demand. In fact, we have seen the opposite with demand easily taking up the supply and 100% clearance rates.
Slattery took a very strategic approach by offering the lesser quality vehicles first establishing the base value for these goods and as the quality increased, so did the overall sales results. Prices have increased to the point where they are now achieving at least 10% more than they were when we commenced the process 3 months ago. This approach shows the importance of a well thought out sales strategy.
The increase in online interstate bidders at our auctions across the board have increased competition for passenger vehicles and increased overall prices. Low kilometer vehicles with a strong service history are low risk for interstate bidders and as such the appetite to purchase them is higher. Naturally those vehicles that are scarce in a particular market are always more popular, which often includes the prestige or sports vehicles. Note however, that where there is no service history, interest rapidly drops away.
This was evident with a 2010 HSV GTS without any service history that sold for reserve at $38,250. We noticed however that quite a lot of buyers dropped off before reaching this price. In contrast, an older 2007 HSV GTS with full service history and books sold for $27,500. This vehicle had a large amount of interest in the auction room and online from interstate buyers.
A positive example of interstate buyers buying a ‘hard to find vehicle' was from a recent sale in Sydney where a new buyer from Queensland brought a black VW Passat Highline Turbo diesel station wagon and a black BMW X3 SI. Both vehicles had good log books and some damage that required rectification. The good service history and rarity of the vehicles meant they both sold very strongly.
The test for the passenger vehicle sector will come in the last quarter of 2015 and first quarter of 2016, as Holden and Ford ramp up final domestic production of their vehicles.
The most immediate test for used values of Holden Commodores is the Series 2 VF range and the run out of the Series 1 VF about to arrive on the market. Anecdotal feedback from car dealers is that the remainder of the Series 1 will be disposed of through their used vehicle departments. This will have an impact on similar Holden products as the dealers will not be looking to source stock from external avenues.
Prestige and high-end vehicles sales have continued to sell well as per previous reports on trends in the sector. The buying trend towards luxury marques has ensured that any used luxury vehicles that have come through our sales in all sites have achieved strong results. AMG and HSV vehicles in particular have sold well.
|Assets||Hours/Kms||Price Achieved||% of Retail||State|
|2011 Chevrolet Silverado LTL||92,828 km||$76,000||84%||QLD|
|2012 Ford Mustang 500||10,389 miles||$57,000||98%||QLD|
|2012 Mercedes Benz C63 AMG||51,958 km||$92,000||95%||VIC|
|2012 Holden Commodore SS-V Z||55,219 km||$28,750||90%||VIC|
|2010 Porsche Cayenne Diesel||62,902 km||$64,000||85%||VIC|
|2011 Toyota Hiace||71,000 km||$22,250||91%||NSW|
|2009 Holden Commodore SS VE||73,643 km||$17,000||82%||NSW|
|2013 Mercedes Benz E200||15,000 km||$56,500||75%||NSW|
|2013 Toyota Prado Kakadu||27,181 km||$69,500||93%||WA|
The largest factor influencing the value of aircraft in Australia is the value of the Australian Dollar. The fall in the Australian dollar has impacted the market by reducing imports across all categories of aviation and increasing demand for domestic aircraft, which have become more affordable.
The currency changes coupled with a promising aerial work season has created more positive conditions for second hand and overhauled aircraft values in Australia. In addition to better aircraft values, sales times for aircraft have reduced.
The helicopter market has not felt the impact as dramatically as the general aviation fixed wing market due to many commercial operators preferring to replace machines that reach the 12-year overhaul requirement. Most domestic operators are continuing to replace their old machines with new, preferring to buy from overseas sellers. Consequently, they are affected by the currency change. Operators are forced to increase their prices to account for the increased replacement cost.
Helicopter operators have been bracing for the predicted fire season. Due to higher than average rainfall and low temp across the east coat, the season start looks like it will be delayed however the intensity prediction has not changed. Most helicopter operators have already invested to prepare for the current season so we do not expect any significant sales results until the second quarter of 2016. As a result, helicopter sales both new and second hand are predicted to maintain their current trajectory.
Within the flight-training sector, operators are starting to see growing interest from overseas students, which has encouraged a number of large colleges to renew their fleet. Subsequently, training aircraft less than 10 years old have become extremely sort after as operators look to gain the market edge with modern fleets and glass cockpit technology.
Flight charter is also seeing growth driven by increased tourism due to the seasonal change and the Australian dollar encouraging more domestic tourism. As a result, a number of larger business jet aircraft charter organisations are refocusing their services back to the tourism industry from government and mining contract work.
Surprisingly, tourism for business jets is very popular, particularly with cross over activities such as racing events etc. Business jet operators have previously been focusing on mining services, which requires operational practices in line with standards such as BARS. These standards mainly impact crew training, however it does influence asset selection and avionics upgrades. Tourism is less restrictive for operators so using older machines or overhauling instead of replacing them is more of an option. It is too early to predict the result of their renewed efforts however should the industry growth continue, we can expect stable results through to the new year.
Chief Financial Officer
Alison is the Chief Financial Officer of the Slattery Group based in Newcastle NSW.
Alison is formally trained as a Chartered Accountant and started her career in the arcade/gaming industry. Alison spent a number of years in Sydney as Finance Director with multinational gaming and software developer Atari Inc., before moving to London to head up the finance team for leisure industry icon Red Letter Days.
Before returning to Australia in 2014, Alison spent four years working as CFO/COO for a professional insolvency firm KRyS Global in the Cayman Islands. Alison's broad responsibilities across multiple industries, both nationally and internationally is invaluable to our company.
Alison's core responsibilities for Slattery's include ensuring robust financial processes and procedures and leading a continual program of best in class financial reporting both internally and for our clients.
Alison answers a few important questions below:
"Honesty and integrity and the desire to be the best team we can be."
Our continued success depends on always delivering a professional, friendly, and memorable customer experience, both internally and externally.
"Being involved with the ‘Smiling for Smiddy' organization raising funds for cancer research, ‘involved' means I've now finished the Noosa Triathlon a second year in a row!"
"Travelling, family BBQ's, bike rides and board games with the kids."
Slattery's has recently been on the receiving end of some very position media attention. Notably, we were excited to be presented with two different awards for our successful business practices. Slattery has also featured in some prominent newspaper editorials. Listed below are a few newsworthy items that have occurred recently: